Varför förutsågs inte valresultatet ?

Varför misslyckades de brittiska opinionsmätarna ? Man kan hävda att valresultatet i procent inte var så fel, men YouGovs VD Peter Kellner vill inte marknadsföra en sådan undanflykt utan konstaterar att alla mätningsinstitut hade fel. Däremot hamnade de som gjorde exitpolls rätt.

Kellner menar att detta är förklaringen:

It comes down to human psychology. Voting is a different exercise from answering a poll. It is a choice with consequences, not just an expression of a view. This year, as in 1992, the Tories have a weak image. They are widely thought to be out of touch and for the rich. But, at the margin, there may be some people who both have a poor view of the party but nevertheless think it will run the economy better than Labour. They are “shy Tories” not because they are unwilling to admit their choice of party to a stranger but because they really would like to support someone else but, faced with a ballot paper in the privacy of the polling booth, simply can’t.