USAs näste president

Det är nästan två år innan USAs näste president installeras. Men trots det diskuteras – i amerikanska medier – frågan om nästa president med en intensitet som om det bara var några månader till valdagen i november 2016.

I Washington Post påpekar Dan Balz idag att det finns ett enormt intresse – men att det är långt kvar:

It’s true that there is a politically engaged audience across the country that pays more attention to these early months than before — and they have easier access to do so through the Internet. But history tells us to be cautious about reading too much into events that take place during much of the year before the presidential campaign year.

In the fall of 1983, then-Sen. Gary Hart of Colorado was mired in single digits and frustrated. He complained that the press just didn’t get it, that reporters were badly underestimating his potential. Most everyone ignored him. A few months later he pulled off a shocker in New Hampshire and nearly beat Walter Mondale for the nomination.

John McCain was nowhere at this point in 1999, yet stunned George W. Bush in New Hampshire in early 2000. McCain was declared politically dead in the summer of 2007 and came back to be the GOP nominee in 2008. Howard Dean was cruising to the Democratic nomination in late 2003 and six weeks later saw his campaign unravel. Eight years ago this spring, Barack Obama was drawing negative coverage — a candidate unable to live up to the hype.

The problem now is that there are often too many conclusions but not enough information. Insiders are eager to connect the dots. Most voters are content to let the candidates come into sharper focus.

This is already a fascinating campaign and destined to become more so. There’s no reason to get too far ahead of it, because no one really knows how it will all unfold. That’s the beauty of it.

Washington Post

En aspekt som nu lyfts fram är att det krävs starka ekonomiska kampanjmuskler för att vinna. Mike Allen i POLITICO lägger fokus på den frågan när han idag i sitt nyhetsbrev listar de mest sannolika GOP-kandidaterna:

1) JEB BUSH (age 62, to Hillary’s 67): He’s got money, momentum, Florida, big ideas. His surprise, early signal that he’s running is THE PLAY OF THE CAMPAIGN so far — pushing OUT Mitt and perhaps Christie by freezing or stealing their money and talent. Jeb will be first Republican to $100 million by a mile. Now, watch for the use of overwhelming force to lock up more talent, donors and public endorsements. His big unknown: actual voters. A story leading the Tampa Bay Times today says Iowa ”looks hostile,’ in part because voters actually matter.

2) GOV. SCOTT WALKER (age 47): He’s got a Wisconsin winning streak, union-bashing, newness and ambition. His boffo performance at the Iowa Freedom Summit got the chattering class to notice. Now, watch for him to position himself as conservative Midwest savior, snuggled between Jeb’s moderation and Cruz’s rigidity. After CPAC (a week and four days from now), Walker plans rat-a-rat trips to the three earliest states – Iowa, N.H., S.C. – within a month.

3) SEN. MARCO RUBIO (age 43): The Floridian is winning fans among future-thinking conservatives, especially younger ones. He’s buffing up on foreign policy and could plausibly be the most sophisticated national-security thinker in the field (grading on a curve, of course). He’s blowing off Senate votes to raise coin and planning trips to Iowa and New Hampshire. And in private, his aides are making clear his relationship with Bush wouldn’t be a deterrent. Remains Playbook’s top pick for veep under the ”no two white dudes on a ticket” rule.

4) SEN. RAND PAUL (age 52): He’s got creativity, social-media savvy, an early-state organization, and the capacity to surprise. SCOOP: Rand plans to continue his effort to reach beyond traditional GOP audiences with an upcoming appearance at a historically black college (he’s still nailing down location). Now, watch to see if he can truly upend what we know about the GOP electorate — and Rand and his family.

5) SEN. TED CRUZ (age 44): His right-wing lingo and street cred could propel him to an Iowa win, which would rattle the GOP establishment and ignite a media frenzy. He heads to Florida on Friday, venturing onto Jeb/Marco turf, as Rand did yesterday. Cruz is trying to look more serious and less scary by emphasizing national security – he did fine last Sunday in satellite interviews from the Munich Security Conference with George Stephanopoulos on ABC’s ”This Week,” and Dana Bash on CNN’s ”State of the Union.” Don’t discount how much true-believers like Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) like the guy.

THE REST: Gov. Chris Christie (age 52) was #5 when we first kicked around this list two weeks ago. Christie has candor, a winning record, raw ambition and some big donors. But Jeb’s fundraising juggernaut has squeezed Christie much worse than top Republicans had expected. And Christie’s London trip, where the biggest stories were about his stance on vaccines and his unwillingness to answer a question about ISIS, showed that the tough-guy shtick needs more work. Our leader board, of course, will change in radical ways in the weeks ahead — especially if another governor — John Kasich of Ohio, Mike Pence of Indiana — gets serious.

De som tror att demokraternas Hillary Clinton blir näste president kan läsa här:

National Journal