Demografin regerar

Washington Posts ekonomiske krönikör Robert Samuelson konstaterar i en bitsk analys att demografin styr amerikansk politik. Det är inte bara där som röststarka pensionärsorganisationer har ett oproportionerligt inflytande över politikerna:

We are allowing demographics to determine national priorities. Nowhere is this more apparent than defense, which is scaling back (the Army alone is cutting an estimated 120,000 active-duty troops from its wartime peak) just when foreign threats seem to be rising. So demographics even shape global strategy.

It’s the path of least resistance. Ideally, we would eliminate nonessential and ineffective programs (farm subsidies, Amtrak), begin to trim Social Security and Medicare benefits (gradual increases in eligibility ages and lower benefits for wealthier recipients), and pay for the rest of government with higher taxes. But both Obama and Republicans evade this unpopular exercise.

Instead, they’ve embraced a policy of slow-motion spending strangulation. The problem is not the “sequester,” which automatically cuts outlays. It is the spending limits required to stay within the outlay “caps” needed to avoid sequester. Though the effect in any single year is modest, the cumulative impact is huge. Since 1990, spending on defense and domestic discretionary programs has averaged 7.4 percent of national income (gross domestic product). In 2014, that was 6.8 percent of GDP, near a post-World War II low. Under Obama’s budget, it’s projected at 4.5 percent in 2025.

At some point, this ratcheting down of spending may become politically unsustainable. (Note: Obama has already proposed increases for national parks.) To the extent that Obama’s budget projections reflect unrealistic spending assumptions, future deficits are understated.

We all ought to want effective and efficient government. But government is being strangled as the rising costs of baby-boomer retirees reduce the capacity of other programs to fulfill their missions. Obama would worsen the problem. Unable to pay for existing programs, he would add more (for “free” community college and more preschool programs, among other things) that would intensify the competition for scarce funds.

Obama imagines himself a champion of better government. In reality, he is an agent of gutted government.

WP