Larsson läser
Janerik Larsson
Janerik Larsson
Har man upplevt Paul Ehrlichs undergångsprotetia om världshungern till följd av befolkningsexplosionen eller Rom-klubbens ”vetenskapliga” prognoser från 70-talet blir man skeptisk till de som nu fortsätter i samma fortspår.
Här ett perspektiv värt notera:
Lobbyists for current, ineffective renewable technologies often argue that our subsidies create precisely this innovation, creating a massive demand for green solutions, and the innovation will follow all by itself. Unfortunately, this is not the case.
A German parliamentary commission has analyzed the effects of Germany’s large green venture, the so-called Energiewende. The commission unambiguously concluded that the subsidies do not create green innovation, because it is much safer for companies to keep relying on heavily subsidized wind turbines, solar panels, and biomass instead of further developing existing technologies and develop new, viable alternatives to fossil fuels. The subsidies simply create the wrong incentives, and the commission “found no positive correlation between subsidization and innovation in any technology sector.”
An excellent illustration of the way progress occurs is the development of computers since the 1950s. We did not develop computers by subsidizing and mass producing vacuum tubes in the 1950s. We did not provide massive subsidies so all westerners could have a humongous computer in their basements by 1960. We also did not tax alternatives, such as typewriters. The development came singularly from a massive investment in R&D, lead by the space race, which led to transistors, integrated circuits, hard disks and all the other breakthroughs innovations that made it possible for companies like IBM and Apple to produce computers that the consumer actually wants to buy.
We know how innovation can reduce CO2 emissions. The shale gas revolution in the United States was made possible with the U.S. government spending $10-billion on R&D over the past three decades. Fracking has pushed gas prices down, replaced dirtier coal with less polluting gas and cut CO2 emissions by about 300 million tonnes in 2012. This is more than three times what EU’s expensive wind turbines and solar cells cut every year. And while the EU pays about $40-billion in subsidies to solar and wind every year, the U.S. makes $280-billion annually from the shale breakthrough.
Rather than counting on the world suddenly choosing to pursue a policy that directly goes against the economic interests of everyone, the next climate summits should focus on dramatically increasing the funding of green R&D to develop the next, cheaper generations of green energy. If we innovate the price of green energy down below the price of fossil fuels, we will finally start tackling global warming.