Krisen i Europa

Stratfor är ett amerikanskt analysföretag med fokus på geopolitisk informationsinhämtning. Idag när många riktar blickarna mot EU-toppmötet är Stratfors analys allt annat än optimistisk – man ser ett EU i sakta förfall:

Unlike the United States, the European Union has been unable to prevent the financial and economic crisis from becoming an acute social crisis, with unemployment levels in Southern Europe rivaling those of the Great Depression. Germany has so far been spared, but the market upon which its post-war prosperity depends so heavily is fraying. The crisis is now migrating northward from the blighted Mediterranean, and France looks to be the next crisis hotspot as it continues to be unable to reform its social spending programs.

It is becoming increasingly apparent to Berlin that eventually Germany will have to heavily commit its own wealth if it wants to avoid a socio-economic catastrophe in the Continent; there is simply no one else who can step up and fill that role. For now, this remains in Germany’s interest, but the interesting question is: What happens when it does not? Most likely, the contract breaks, and the Continent return to its pre-1914 state — bringing the German question back to the fore.

To be sure, there is still some hope for the contract to hold together. The European Union could yet manage to weather the slump indefinitely, settling for a future of comfortable stagnation like Japan. Europe could also somehow achieve true political and economic union and return to the global superpower table. But the last eight years of unrelenting stress in Europe and the accompanying rise in radical political parties so far give little cause for such hopes

http://www.stratfor.com/