Mycket av den svenska utrikes- och säkerhetspolitiska debatten bygger på en bild av USA som jag tror är mycket svagt underbyggd. Ian Bremmer, en mycket insiktsfull och respekterad amerikansk riskanalytiker, skriver idag i Sunday Times om Storbritanniens förhållande till USA. Mycket också i brittisk debatt baseras på en orealistisk USA-bild.
America must not become a fortress. It should redouble its commitment to trade, because stronger commercial and investment ties will be essential for alliances that can no longer depend on military ties. It should continue to export things that others want to buy, especially state-of-the-art communication technologies and much more of the energy that it now produces. It should welcome immigrants and a larger share of the world’s refugees.
The next president should set a high bar for political and military intervention in the lives of others. Insist that Nato can survive only if other members accept a greater share of both the costs and the risks (America pays 70% of Nato’s bills). Let Germany and Japan, two of the world’s richest nations, assume responsibility for their own security. Share weapons and information with those most threatened by Isis, but don’t fight another war in Iraq. Build trade and investment ties with China, but accept that choices made in Beijing, not in Washington, will decide China’s future. This drive to refocus on domestic priorities will inflict significant damage on relations with allies such as Britain, but America’s gain will far outweigh what it loses.
Whatever choices a future president makes, US allies must prepare for a world in which American power means less than it used to. That’s why Britain was wise to shrug off US pressure and instead join the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Prosperity in tomorrow’s global economy will require constructive relations with both America and China. Britons should also recognise that Berlin’s long-term approach to Moscow will matter much more than Washington’s.