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Janerik Larsson

Janerik Larsson

Den amerikanska diskussionen om Ryssland/Ukraina är betydligt mera mångfacetterad än den europeiska. Här ett perspektiv signerat Daily Beast-kolumnisten James Poulos.

Rubrik: Putin’s biggest weapon is the threat of his own country’s collapse

Which would you rather confront: A strong Russia or a weak Russia?

For many in the West, the answer seems obvious. Vladimir Putin’s regime opposes our interests, and his nation is a corrupt and sprawling military powerhouse. The weaker the better, right?

Wrong. If Putin’s Russia is becoming the preeminent problem in European affairs, it’s essential to remember that Russia’s great internal weakness is, in a nettlesome way, its greatest weapon. No Western leader can outwardly root for a strongman in Moscow. But the West knows how to manage that kind of adversary. When it comes to a Russia on the brink of collapse, our track record is disastrous. And this time, the margin for error is even narrower than in the past.

Perhaps that is why some of the West’s keenest observers are offering the gravest of warnings against escalating the quasi-war in Ukraine. Speaking at London’s Kings College, former MI6 chief John Sawers declared that prudence should prevail precisely because the stakes of our conflict with Russia have ratcheted up: ”The Ukraine crisis is no longer just about Ukraine. It’s now a much bigger, more dangerous crisis, between Russia and western countries, about values and order in Europe,” he said.

Sawers’ counsel — ”a new approach to co-existence with President Putin’s Russia” — sounds suspiciously like appeasement to American hawks. But Sawer pointedly linked Western caution on Ukraine to the calamity still unfolding in the wake of our Libyan misadventure. ”When crisis erupted in Libya, we didn’t feel it right to sit by as Gadhafi crushed decent Libyans demanding an end to dictatorship. But we didn’t want to get embroiled in Libya’s problems by sending in ground forces,” he noted. ”No one held the ring … Result? Growing chaos, exploited by fanatics.”

That, not an emboldened Russia, is the true nightmare scenario for the West.

Poulos

 

 

Om gästbloggen

Janerik Larsson är gästbloggare hos SvD Ledare. Han är skribent, författare och journalist, verksam i Stiftelsen Fritt Näringsliv och pr-byrån Prime. Bloggar om svensk politik och har en internationell utblick mot främst brittiska och amerikanska medier.
Åsikter är hans egna.
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