Östra Ukraina nytt Nordirland ?

Statsvetarbloggen Monkey Cage på Washington Posts hemsida publicerar i helgen en kommentar av Serhiy Kudelia på Baylor University. Av Kudelias hemsida framgår att han ägnat stort intresse åt Ukraina. Nu ställer han frågan om östra Ukraina kommer att utvecklas till ett långt utdraget lokalt krig:

 So if guerrilla war begins there may not be an end to violence in sight.

Här hans sammanfattning:

The path to solving the current conflict in Donbas goes not only through Brussels or Washington, but also through Moscow. While Russia has become an active participant in the conflict, it is also the only actor with real leverage over the insurgents. By denying them sanctuaries on its territory and ending arms supplies, it will effectively cut their main lifeline. However, the Kremlin will not acquiesce to an outcome that ignores what it views as its legitimate interests in the region with a large ethnic Russian presence. While Russia’s immediate commitment to peace is doubtful, the prospect of a protracted conflict on its border, growing international isolation and risks of regional war is also hardly appealing for Putin. All the sides – Ukraine, Russia and the West – should in principle be
interested in finding a sustainable resolution to the conflict. One thing that prevents them from negotiating in earnest now is the belief that their interests will be better served by continued fighting

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/07/26/will-eastern-ukraine-turn-into-northern-ireland/?wpisrc=nl_Cage